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Why the Iran Deal is good for the West: Hidden Considerations

Hassan Rouhani, President of Iran
From Wikipedia
Earlier today, people gathered at a rally aimed at stopping the Iran Deal. The vote for this deal is expected to be on September 17. But is it really that bad for the West, America included?

No way. Here are several reasons why:

1. The Iran Deal allows the west to 'divide and conquer' hostile states.

Russia and Iran, as most of us know, have reached a geopolitical sort-of-alliance. They are at least friendly states.

That's going to change.

The two disproportionately rely on resource exports - more specifically, the two rely on oil exports, the price of which has been dropping. With the introduction of Iran into the market, Russia and Iran's strategic interests will diverge.

Here's why - Russia wants Europe to have no oil, so they suffer just as much as Russia is suffering under the sanctions. Iran, though, is establishing ties to the rest of the world (other than China and North Korea). They seek to export lots and lots of oil to both Europe and the world.

With this large conflict of interests, it's wholly possible that Iran might split with Russia - and maybe even finally make up with the West.

2. The Iran Deal relieves the pressure on Europe.

From Maps on the Web
Europe has been suffering lately from the lack of oil, something caused by the economic sanctions levied against Russia.

That's going to change.

Iranian proven oil reserves are barely less than twice that of Russia's. In other words, Iran (and Iraq, once ISIS dies down) are about to supplant Russia as the biggest oil exporters to Europe. They're the closest, too, if you disregard European nations with oil around the North Sea. It merely requires a pipeline through Turkey (which might be a problem, given Erdogan's anti-Europe attitude).

To be exact, the pipelines across Turkey are called the Iran-Turkey pipeline (in addition to the Iraq-Turkey pipeline).

3. Less dependence on Russia.

Europe was badly hit by their economic sanctions imposed on Russia. They remain unpopular in many places throughout Europe, and some would say no if a vote was called over the sanctions.

That's going to change.

The whole reason why many opposed the sanctions is because of the devastating effect they'd have on the European economy. Without oil, modern economies slow down - or if they're already in a recession, they go into decline. That's why so many people opposed sanctions on Russia.

Russia had previously held a high percentage of European-imported oil, due to the oil being transported quickly through many pipelines west. It's faster than ships, in many cases.

But now, with Iran's doors open, it seems like:

4. The European slowdown might reverse.

5. Persian Gulf states lose authority.

In a multi-polar world, it seems like everything's changing. With the downfall of the Soviet Union, America became a hyperpower. China's exploding. Japan has fallen after decades of prosperity. Everything is in flux.

Except one thing - oil. It seems like the Gulf states are always on top, no matter what. Rich beyond belief, they have had the power to force decisions in their favor. OPEC, dominated by the Persian Gulf states, had declared a halt to oil production in 1973, forcing not only oil production to halt, but also the world economy.

They've served to constrain the West's power by choosing to increase or decrease oil prices on a whim, crushing Western oil-dependent economies. Iran is their fundamental enemy, since their purposeful increase in oil supply reduced Iranian oil profits when they needed it most - during their Islamic Revolution.

And finally, number six.

6. Globalization will de-radicalize Iran.

Much like Communist China after Deng Xiaoping, Iran might go through a similar process. Take China's policy on North Korea, for example.

China, previously hostile to South Korea, has remarkably changed its tune. It now places South Korea and North Korea at approximately equal values - the two weigh about the same in their interests. It's entirely possible that China will finally decide to cut its losses in North Korea and depose Kim (a wish almost everyone in the world shares).

Iran, who often supports Shiite Muslim extremists, like Hezbollah, may go through a similar shift in policy. Unlike China, though, Iran has a neighboring balancing power (or should I say powers?) - the Arab Gulf states. That means that they can't go bully their neighbors like China, and introducing Iran to global markets will make them far more dependent on the rest of the world than previously.

These are six good reasons why the Iran deal is good for the West - and the world. Do you disagree? Feel free to comment below on your opinions.

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